A health workforce plan needs five kinds of data: who is employed (positions and people, by role, status, location, and cohort), how they flow (hires, exits, leaves, and internal moves over time), how much of their paid time reaches the point of care (productive hours), what work they are delivering (activity and census), and what the population will need (demographics and, where the question is access, health status). Most health systems hold all five somewhere. Almost none hold them in a form that can be joined, refreshed monthly, and trusted by the people who have to act on the result.
That gap, not the modeling method, is what usually stalls workforce planning. The finding from workforce audits is consistent: definitions differ between HR, payroll, and scheduling; extracts are manual and undocumented; and nobody owns the number. Fixing the data foundation is the first and highest-value phase of any planning build, and it is the reason a workforce audit starts with data and governance rather than with a model.
Every planning model is a join across HR, payroll, scheduling, and clinical systems. If the join is wrong, the model is wrong, however elegant the equations.
The five data domains
| Domain | Minimum fields | Usual source | Usual problem |
|---|---|---|---|
| Positions and people | Position ID, funded FTE, filled FTE, classification, unit, site, employment status, hire date, birth year or tenure band | HRIS | Position and person conflated; unit codes differ from clinical systems; casual pool untracked |
| Flows | Hire, exit, exit reason, leave start and end, transfers, by month, three to five years | HRIS history tables | History overwritten; exit reasons unreliable; internal transfers counted as exits |
| Productive hours | Paid hours by pay code (worked, overtime, sick, vacation, education, orientation) by unit and month | Payroll, time and attendance | Pay codes not mapped to categories; hours charged to home unit, not worked unit |
| Activity and census | Census by unit by shift or hour; visits, cases, referrals by service; ADT events | ADT, EHR, registration | Unit definitions differ from HR; midnight census only; virtual and overflow beds unlabelled |
| Population | Population by age and sex by geography, projected; prevalence for priority conditions | Statistics agencies, public health | Geography does not match catchment; projections stale |
Definitions before pipelines
The most expensive mistake is automating an extract before agreeing what it measures. Four definitions cause most of the disputes and should be written down, signed by HR, finance, and operations, and versioned:
- Vacancy: funded minus filled, but filled by whom? Include or exclude positions held by someone on leave, positions with an accepted offer, positions backfilled by casual staff.
- FTE: contracted, paid, or worked. Each is a different number and each is right for a different question.
- Turnover: exits over average headcount, but which exits? Retirements, internal transfers, and casual-to-permanent conversions all distort the rate if not classified.
- Unit: the single crosswalk between HR department codes, payroll cost centres, and clinical unit identifiers. Without it nothing joins.
Building the foundation
Inventory and score
Agree the definitions
Build the unit crosswalk
Automate the monthly extract
Publish the baseline reports
Then model
How long this takes
For a regional health authority with a functioning HRIS and payroll system, steps one to five are typically four to six months of focused work, most of it on definitions and the crosswalk rather than on technology. Organizations mid-restructuring, or integrating several legacy systems, should expect longer and should treat the crosswalk as the first deliverable of the integration.
Sources
- Canadian Institute for Health Information. Health Workforce data and standards. cihi.ca
- Health Workforce Canada. State of Health Workforce Modelling and Forecasting in Canada. 2024. healthworkforce.ca
- Someplum Consulting. Healthcare Workforce Audit: what we assess. someplumconsulting.com